Suppose that you are an Evil Overlord out to take over land that ain’t yours.
Suppose that you’ve been conducting a semi-secret military buildup to allow you to do this and, now, you are virtually ready to seize military control of a particular plot of land that you want under your control.
Suppose that your chief rival, who is publicly committed to stoping you from taking over this plot of land, is currently stretched militarily due to fighting a world war on several fronts.
When do you, the Evil Overlord, strike and try to take over that juicy plot of land? While your chief rival is still fighting that war on several fronts or afterwards, once he’s no longer distracted and has had a chance to recover militarily?
Before, of course! Don’t be silly!
Now suppose that your name is China and you want to take over a plot of land called Taiwan and your chief rival is named America and the world war is called the War on Terror.
Bill Gertz–an important journalist focusing on intelligence matters–is reporting that China may try to seize control of Taiwan in 2006 or 2007.
Further, he suggests its near-term warfare aims may not stop at Taiwan.
Y’know how the plots of a couple of Tom Clancey novels were eerily mirrored in the events of 2000-2001, what with a disputed election and a major terrorist attack involving slamming jets into things and biological warfare and all?
Well, Gertz is hearing from folks who are suggesting that the plot of another Tom Clancy novel ("The Bear and the Dragon") may also get eerily mirrored, with China contemplating the seizure of territory in eastern Russia to get its natural resources.
Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China’s military, said the internal U.S. government debate on the issue and excessive Chinese secrecy about its military buildup "has cost us 10 years to figure out what to do"
"Everybody is starting to acknowledge the hard facts," Mr. Pillsbury said. "The China military buildup has been accelerating since 1999. As the buildup has gotten worse, China is trying hard to mask it."
Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.
"Let’s all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."
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