Suppose that you are an Evil Overlord out to take over land that ain’t yours.
Suppose that you’ve been conducting a semi-secret military buildup to allow you to do this and, now, you are virtually ready to seize military control of a particular plot of land that you want under your control.
Suppose that your chief rival, who is publicly committed to stoping you from taking over this plot of land, is currently stretched militarily due to fighting a world war on several fronts.
When do you, the Evil Overlord, strike and try to take over that juicy plot of land? While your chief rival is still fighting that war on several fronts or afterwards, once he’s no longer distracted and has had a chance to recover militarily?
Before, of course! Don’t be silly!
Now suppose that your name is China and you want to take over a plot of land called Taiwan and your chief rival is named America and the world war is called the War on Terror.
Bill Gertz–an important journalist focusing on intelligence matters–is reporting that China may try to seize control of Taiwan in 2006 or 2007.
Further, he suggests its near-term warfare aims may not stop at Taiwan.
Y’know how the plots of a couple of Tom Clancey novels were eerily mirrored in the events of 2000-2001, what with a disputed election and a major terrorist attack involving slamming jets into things and biological warfare and all?
Well, Gertz is hearing from folks who are suggesting that the plot of another Tom Clancy novel ("The Bear and the Dragon") may also get eerily mirrored, with China contemplating the seizure of territory in eastern Russia to get its natural resources.
Michael Pillsbury, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China’s military, said the internal U.S. government debate on the issue and excessive Chinese secrecy about its military buildup "has cost us 10 years to figure out what to do"
"Everybody is starting to acknowledge the hard facts," Mr. Pillsbury said. "The China military buildup has been accelerating since 1999. As the buildup has gotten worse, China is trying hard to mask it."
Richard Fisher, vice president of the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said that in 10 years, the Chinese army has shifted from a defensive force to an advanced military soon capable of operations ranging from space warfare to global non-nuclear cruise-missile strikes.
"Let’s all wake up. The post-Cold War peace is over," Mr. Fisher said. "We are now in an arms race with a new superpower whose goal is to contain and overtake the United States."
GET THE WHOLE FRIGHTENING STORY.
And we’re paying for it too.
I’ve been contracting at an American Fortune 50 company for the past two years. My team has gone from 15 people to five. And those who remain can’t get computers, software or anything else they need to do their jobs. Two more just got laid off today.
We’ve trained their replacements in China. The folks who work for this company in China all have shiney new laptops, software and all the people they need. Their groups are growing while ours are being eliminated.
What are we (America) thinking?!
Things are looking pretty worrisome; the PLAN (PLA Navy) has laid the keels for 23 amphibious assault ships, and trial runs for their Type 9 nuclear sub were completed last month- a few 5 years ahead of schedule.
There are those who are paying attention, though; Singapore has been in talks with Taiwan over an expanded military assistance treaty (Singapore currently trains their artillery forces in Taiwan), and there have been increased talks in Japan about expanding their nuclear submarine patrols into the Strait- something that the Old Men in the Forbidden City will definitely not like.
The smart money says that an invasion of Taiwan will take place within the next decade.
Couple problems if China tries anything though:
1. Assuming a president who is willing to intervene, China will lose over Taiwan, no ifs, ands, or buts. All we have to do is send an ESG into the South China Sea and capture their freighters and tankers. The Chinese economy will very quickly tank, and they’ll be forced to surrender. That’s without even using the 7 carriers that we can get there within 30 days.
2. If China goes after Russia, China will cease to exist, it is that simple. Russia knows that they cannot defeat them in a conventional engagement, and so will employ the Strategic Rocket Forces.
Paul: Hmm…not really sure about the first one. I think the vast majority of the world will not go to Taiwan’s defense. Europe will call for an economic embargo which they will lift within two years and the Chinese goverment itself doesn’t care what happens to it’s own people so that will not be a deterent. I think this is going to get really ugly.
Call me crazy, but wouldn’t the best time for China to have attempted a seize of Taiwan been during the months right after the beginning of the new year before the Iraq war?
It won’t matter if the rest of the world goes to Taiwan’s defense or not. All that matters is us (for that matter, the JMSDF is probably the only other force that could intervene). A dead economy will topple the government as well, the whole Mandate from Heaven thing is still going on. Finally, that was just one option. It’d probably be partnered along with destroying the PLAN with the Seventh Fleet.
Call me crazy, but wouldn’t the best time for China to have attempted a seize of Taiwan been during the months right after the beginning of the new year before the Iraq war?
Right after the Iraq War began would have been best (Navy would then be tied down, Army is irrelevant to defending Taiwan), but they didn’t have the sealift capability for it.
And Putin would like nothing better than a fight. He’s already trying to become a strongman, and the Russian people would unite behind him.
Yeah, Europe would try sanctions and nonsense, but the U.S., Japan, and quite possibly Austalia would be there to assist Russia & Taiwan right away. And Taiwan is not exactly poorly armed itself.
…and the absolute gall of the PRC.
what, with 3 times more people than us, they now want OUR oil! of course it is a national security issue. We are the USA, we deseve to have everything. It is OUR world and we will fight to keep and control the world’s asssets!
Oh, I thought while reading the first paragraph, you were referring to Iraq.
You meant China, not the United States.
Evil Overlord.
Hmm. Maybe they are just reading history and think that someone else should be the world power this century (or millenium).
Well, ask anyone, when you are on top, everyone else tries to bring you down; be it sports, popularity, business, beauty, finance, geo-political entities, et alia.
Speaking of “time to wake up”, I was reading in Proverbs and couldn’t help but be humbled and tremble as this seems to describe the USA of the 21st century. After all, China doesn’t claim to be a God-fearing country:
Proverbs, chapter one:
13… we shall find all precious goods, we shall fill our houses with spoil; 14 throw in your lot among us, we will all have one purse…
…20 Wisdom cries aloud in the street; in the markets she raises her voice; 21 on the top of the walls she cries out; at the entrance of the city gates she speaks: 22 “How long, O simple ones, will you love being simple? How long will scoffers delight in their scoffing and fools hate knowledge? 23 Give heed to my reproof; behold, I will pour out my thoughts to you; I will make my words known to you. 24 Because I have called and you refused to listen, have stretched out my hand and no one has heeded, 25 and you have ignored all my counsel and would have none of my reproof, 26 I also will laugh at your calamity; I will mock when panic strikes you, 27 when panic strikes you like a storm, and your calamity comes like a whirlwind, when distress and anguish come upon you. 28 Then they will call upon me, but I will not answer; they will seek me diligently but will not find me. 29 Because they hated knowledge and did not choose the fear of the LORD, 30 would have none of my counsel, and despised all my reproof, 31 therefore they shall eat the fruit of their way and be sated with their own devices. 32 For the simple are killed by their turning away, and the complacence of fools destroys them; 33 but he who listens to me will dwell secure and will be at ease, without dread of evil.”
Yes, that is what I am afraid of, that we (America) will continue to pay for it. Have mercy on us, Lord.
What are we (America) thinking? That we are blessed by God, that we are invincible and our great nation-state will last for a thousand years, like every other empire that has ever been and did not.
Thought this was also relevent:
http://www.jerrypournelle.com/mail/mail368.html#Tuesday
Please scroll down to the last post under Tuesday (the letter by Gordon Foreman of Los Alamos, NM.)
The PLA will eventually go for the whole littoral, from Korea through Australia. They have been flexing their muscles in all of the countries involved
In the eastern Siberian provinces, Chinese illegal immigrants have perhaps provided Vincente Fox with a model by taking over the economic infrastructure of those provinces. China already effectively controls that region. But Putin allies with them instead of us. ..
I fear that we will let the PLA put the 23 million Taiwanese (or those who survive the IRBM bombardment) into slavery. Our economy is so entangled with a country that “don’ need no steenkeen capitalits” that the pressure against defending the Free Chinese will be irresistible in Washington.