‘Member our old friend, the Asteroid Apophis?
Fortunately, it ain’t gonna hit us in 2029.
But there is a small chance it may smack into the planet in 2036–seven years later.
How small a chance?
About 1 in 5,500.
But, like, one hit by an asteroid can ruin your whole civilization.
So 1:5,500 may be too much of a risk to accept.
Some scientists certainly think so.
That’s why they’re calling for THE FIRST REAL-LIFE ASTEROID-DEFLECTION MISSION!
YEE-HAW!!!
They figger that we’ve got till 2013 (8 years from now) to decide IF we are going to mount such a mission but then, given the time needed to develop the tech (which we don’t have; we only have ideas for how to do it at this stage) and given the time needed to actually DO the mission (which could take YEARS for us to accomplish even once we have the tech–given the astronomical distances and delicate orbits involved), we really shouldn’t wait past 2013 to decide.
I’m ALL FOR THIS.
Even if it turns out Apophis has next to no risk of hitting Earth, we NEED to have asteroid-deflection technology, because if Apophis doesn’t smack into us, something else WILL–and it could be something we DON’T spot with 31 years warning! The sooner we have anti-asteroid technology in our back pocket, the better off we’ll all be.
So even though I’m not normally in favor of high-cost efforts to counter low-risk dangers, THIS ONE I’m in favor of.
I’d hate to see anything bad happen to my favorite planet!
There are a bunch of different ways to deflect asteroids. (NOTE TO SELVES: Blowing them up is NOT a good idea; you’re likely to get hit with the debris.) Sometime in the next decade, the European Space Agency (ESA) is even planning on testing the tech needed for one method:
ESA plans to test this idea with its Don Quixote mission, where two satellites will be sent to an asteroid. One of them, Hidalgo, will collide with the asteroid at high speed while the other, Sancho, will measure the change in the object’s orbit.



