What Are The Odds?

29 thoughts on “What Are The Odds?”

1. I seriously doubt the next pope will take the name JPIII. First, there have never been three popes in a row with the same name and only two times have there been two popes in a row (and both were under special circumstances). Second, John Paul the Great had such enormous impact that I don’t think the next pope will want to take the same name. My bet (figuratively speaking) is on Pius XIII or Leo XIV.

2. My bet (figuratively speaking) is on Paul VII. Seven is such a symbolic number and all. For similar reasons, I think Pius is out for good. Who wants to risk that “the thirteenth” thing nowadays?
   I also would not be surprised to see a new name.
   My personal favorite (for obvious reasons) is on Shoenborn’s given name. Pope Christopher. Who better to “Bear Christ” to the world and he’s sure to be a big traveler. Who knows, if he’s good enough we can finally get a Saint Christopher for the calendar again.

3. Also note that “Sixtus the Sixth” just doesn’t ring well.

4. I say we’re way overdue for another Pope Evaristus or Zephyrinus! 😀

5. Interesting odds. If I were a betting man, I’d take the odds on Scola, Dias, Ouellet, and Lopez-Trujillo (who isn’t even on there)

6. How about Pope Bob?

7. I’d say with the outside possibility of a new pope on the openning day of the last Star Wars movie that Pope Lando II seems in order.
   Or if he’s more of a romanitic comedy fan it could be Pope Hilarius II.
   In all seriousness, I’d love to see another Gregory (Gregory XVII) and not just because it is my 1st son’s name but because of the great heritage of the Gregorian popes.
   I can’t believe the betting pool puts the name Peter at 50-1. I can’t imagine any pope taking the name that no other Pope has been willing to take. Is there a way to take the opposite side of a bet? That’s a sure winner if you ask me.

8. I can’t believe the betting pool puts the name Peter at 50-1. I can’t imagine any pope taking the name that no other Pope has been willing to take. Is there a way to take the opposite side of a bet? That’s a sure winner if you ask me.
   If you could and did do so, you’d only get a dollar for every fifty you wagered; not worthwhile, unless you have a rich friend whose willing to lend you fifty million to bet on what the next pope is going to call himself.

9. On second thought…
   Does anyone know whether, when you bet in this “odds” style and win, you get your original wager times the multiplier, or your original wager in addition your original wager times the multiplier*? If the former, then betting on the other side would always lose you money.
   *Example:
   Odds are 25:1. You bet a dollar and win. Under the first set of rules, you get $25 back. Under the second, you get $26–the $25 you won plus the original $1 you bet.

10. I’d heard somewhere that, by informal tradition, Popes have avoided taking the name of Peter and in more recent centuries, taking any name not already used by a previous Pope (John Paul I was combining the names of his two immediate predecessors, obviously.)
    I’d REALLY like to see a Pope Telesphorus II 😀
    Kinda like the ring of Sixtus the Sixth, myself, but it’s prolly just a little too cutesy for any Sovereign Pontiff’s tastes. Mind you, the same could have been said about “John Paul” back in ’78, and prolly was said in some circles.
    And “John XXIII” was considered an ill-omened (and therefore unused) name for a long time, because 2 different anti-Popes had taken it (one was part of the Great Western Schism, I think, forget the other). Until it was, well, used. So I wouldn’t rule out Pius XIII just yet.

11. Being a “Peanuts” fan myself I wouldn’t mind a Pope Linus II. 🙂
    On a related note, yesterday the Washington Post did an article about Paddy Power’s papal oddsmakers and in it they noted in all seriousness that Paddy Power was giving 1000 to 1 odds on Father Dougal Maguire of Craggy Island, Ireland.
    Except there’s one minor problem. Father Dougal is a character (and rather dim one) on the British comdey TV series “Father Ted”. It looks like someone at Paddy Pwer was having a belated April Fools joke at the WaPo’s expense and they fell for it.

12. I keep telling you guys, the next pope will be named Francis, and it will not require a name change.

13. I suspect that, if it is not a new compound name, the name will be Leo XIV, though Benedict XVI would be my preference. Clement XIV would be nice, but for the fact that Clement XIII was very much not a heroic figure (Clement XII, however, was). Gregory would be a great reference to Gregory I, but the new pope would need to make that clear, as opposed to, let’s say, Gregory XVI (the Italian memories of whom are very very bad). Innocent XIV might be seen as a reference back to Bl. Innocent XI, who organized the last crusade against the Turks in 1683; I can’t see this batch of Cardinals wanting that! I cannot see why a Pope would bother to court controversy with the name Pius right now.

14. John XXIII partly took the name because, as a church historian, he wanted to cleanse the ambiguity over the numbering of the name caused by antipopes.

15. “I cannot see why a Pope would bother to court controversy with the name Pius right now.”
    Heck, if the new Pope was daring, he’d take this name just to show the world the resolve behind the new papacy. If any, the name “Pius” is now associated with it…unbending, uncompromising resolve.

16. How come no pope has chosen “Pope Andrew”? An apostle, no less!

17. Because that name is historically associated with the Patriarchate of Constantinople like Peter is with Rome; taking the name would likely not been seen as an ecumenically friendly gesture.

18. With regards to “Pope Peter II”, my mother says that when she was a school-girl she was told that the last pope before the Second Coming would be named Peter. Has anyone else ever heard this, and if so what was the source? Was it an obscure (or spurious) private revelation, or just a rumor?
    Thanks!
    Andy

19. Duhhh…for those of us who are Gambling Impaired, could someone please explain what these odds actually mean?

20. Do they really think the next pope could chose the name “Blessed Urban” or “Blessed Innocent”? I don’t think the pope has the authority to beatify himself, and while he’s still alive!

21. I guess they’re going on the theory that since some people have the last name St. John, a pope could take the full name of a Blessed including the Blessed part. Under that theory the next pope might be Pope Pope St. Gregory the Great I. Very silly, but so is giving Peter II 50:1 odds. So, for that matter, is betting money on pope names at all.

22. They have 3 US Cardinals on there, but not Cardinal George. He’s the only one I give even half a chance to.

23. SouthCoast,
    Speaking as this blogs resident Nevadan I think I can answer your question about what the odds mean.
    When a bookie lays odds on something, whether it be a basketball game, a horse race or a papal election what he is saying is his educated guess as to the probability of a particular outcome to that contest. The closer the odds are to 1:1, the more likely the bookmaker thinks that that particular team/horse/cardinal will win.
    So when Paddy Power lays odds of 11:4 (which really translates as 2.75:1) that either Tettamazi or Arinze will be the next pope, they are pretty confident of that out come. Whereas they have Daneels (my favorite) at 20:1 they don’t really think too highly of his chances.
    Incidentally it is on the long odds bets that bookies make there money. It’s human nature to want to win as much money as possible, so a lot of people will take long odds bets and the bookie will use that to pay off anyone who bets on a short odds winner. Anything left over is his profit. Of course it the long odds bet wins, well then he’s got to pay off and will probably take a loss.
    –arthur

24. SouthCoast,
    Speaking as this blogs resident Nevadan I think I can answer your question about what the odds mean.
    When a bookie lays odds on something, whether it be a basketball game, a horse race or a papal election what he is saying is his educated guess as to the probability of a particular outcome to that contest. The closer the odds are to 1:1, the more likely the bookmaker thinks that that particular team/horse/cardinal will win.
    So when Paddy Power lays odds of 11:4 (which really translates as 2.75:1) that either Tettamazi or Arinze will be the next pope, they are pretty confident of that out come. Whereas they have Daneels (my favorite) at 20:1 they don’t really think too highly of his chances.
    Incidentally it is on the long odds bets that bookies make there money. It’s human nature to want to win as much money as possible, so a lot of people will take long odds bets and the bookie will use that to pay off anyone who bets on a short odds winner. Anything left over is his profit. Of course it the long odds bet wins, well then he’s got to pay off and will probably take a loss.
    –arthur

25. Arthur, thanks! Now I can follow what’s going on.

26. I would be pleased, and I believe that the Church would be blessed, if Francis Cardinal Arinze were elevated to the Pontificate and took the name of a fellow African, Augustine. What better patron for global evangelization.
    I wasn’t able to follow the link to see the expanded list of names so I don’t know if Augustine was mentioned, but I don’t recommend betting on the work of the Spirit.

27. Pope Benedict XVI, (in Latin Benedictus PP. XVI), (born April 16, 1927, and baptized Joseph Alois Ratzinger), was elected Pope of the Catholic Church on April 19, 2005. As such, he is Bishop of Rome, sovereign of the Vatican City State, patriarch of the West, primate of Italy, and supreme pontiff of the worldwide Catholic Church in union with Rome, including those Eastern Rite Churches in communion with the Holy See. He will be formally installed as pontiff during the Mass of Papal Installation on April 24, 2005.
    At 78 years old, first German pontiff since Adrian VI (1522–1523) who was born in what is now the Netherlands, but which was then seen as part of Germany. The last pope to come from within the modern boundaries of Germany was Victor II, who died in 1057. Benedict XVI is the 8th German pope in history; the first was Gregory V. The last Benedict, Benedict XV, served as pontiff from 1914 to 1922 and thus reigned during World War I.
    He was appointed prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith by Pope John Paul II in 1981, made a Cardinal Bishop of the episcopal see of Velletri-Segni in 1993, and was elected Dean of the College of Cardinals in 2002, becoming titular bishop of Ostia. He was already one of the most influential men in the Vatican and a close associate of the late John Paul II before he became pope. He also presided over the funeral of John Paul II and the Conclave in 2005 which elected him. During the most recent sede vacante, he was the highest-ranking official in the Catholic Church.
    Some see Benedict as a traditionalist, others as merely orthodox, but almost all observers agree that he is a staunch defender of the Church. He is an opponent of homosexuality, same-sex marriage, euthanasia, and abortion and has spoken about the unique role of the Catholic Church in salvation and has called all other Christian churches and ecclesial communities “deficient.” As a Cardinal, he wrote Truth and Tolerance, a book in which he denounces the use of tolerance as an excuse to distort the truth.

28. A nice thing from Jimmy Akin.
    if i would be a better i would bet on Paul.
    The VoIP/TDM Routes Marketplace

29. Online Baccarat

    A card player should learn that once the money is in the pot, it isn’t his any longer.

Comments are closed.