Freakonomics

FreakonomicsWelcome to Freakonomics week here on the blog. This last weekend I read the book pictured to the left and decided that I had enough to say about it to do a theme week (one post per day) on the subject.

First, let’s start with a general book review.

In case you may not be aware of it, Freakonomics is one of the breakout books this year. It has done extraordinarily well (especially for a book about economics). People are talking about it, arguing about it, citing it in editorials, etc., etc.

Having read it, it’s easy to see why. First, unlike the vast majority of economics books, it’s very easy to read. Even easier than some of Thomas Sowell’s economics books, and his are among the easiest there are.

You don’t have to get braced up for lots of technical gunk with this book. It’s written in clear, easy-to-understand English.

What’s more, it’s interesting. The authors aren’t trying to get across a lot of stuff about how the American economy or the global economy works. They aren’t predicing bear markets or bull markets, recessions or booms.

Instead, they are doing something an increasing number of economists are doing: Taking the principles and ideas normally used in economics and applying them to areas of life not traditionally considered economic in nature. Hence the "freak" part of the title. With chapter titles like "What Do School Teachers and Sumo Wrestlers Have in Common?" and "How Is the Ku Klux Klan Like a Group of Real-Estate Agents?" and "Why Do Drug Dealers Still Live with Their Moms?", you know that you’re not in for a typical, dry economics tome.

(Answers: School teachers and sumo wrestlers both fake results for reasons of self-interest; the KKK and real-estate agents both conceal certain kinds of information and lose their power when that knowledge is publicly exposed; most drug dealers pull in so little money that they are making less than minimum wage.)

The book is also iconoclastic. In applying economics principles to unusual areas, by asking unusual questions and then seeing what the available data has to say about them, the authors (or more specifically, the lead author) comes to conclusions that frequently (though not always) fly in the face of conventional wisdom. That helps make the book interesting, too. If it was just a work documenting all the cases in which the conventional wisdom is right, it’d be a lot less interesting.

For example: Did you know that it’s one hundred time more dangerous for small children to be in a typical house where there is a swimming pool than in a typical house where there are firearms?

Just one of the many cool tidbits that you’ll pick up by reading this book.

Now: There are things about the book that I don’t like. F’rinstance: I don’t like the way the lead author is treated. Steven D. Levitt is a noted young economist who has been the subject of various press articles by individuals such as co-author Stephen J. Dubner. Levitt was initially approached by a publisher about writing a book but wasn’t interested in doing it himself, so he teamed up with Dubner. As far as I can tell, all the economic ideas in the book are Levitt’s, while all the writing on the book was done by Dubner (no doubt with Levitt editing).

Here’s the problem: The book regularly quotes from a New York Times Magazine profile of Levitt that is basically a puff piece. It portrays Levitt as the coolest thing since sliced bread and as some kind of freaky economic supergenius who gets it right where all the other economists get it wrong. In fact, in one excerpt the piece compares Levitt to the guy who comes across numerous highly intelligent people futzing with a complex machine that they can’t get to work, only to notice that they haven’t plugged it in.

While it may be within the purview of the NYTM to publish such heroic puff pieces, it’s another thing entirely to quote such embarrassingly excessive passages in one of your own books. I expect to find deleriously positive ravings about an author placed by a publisher’s marketing department on the back of a book, but I don’t expect to find such statements placed in the text of the book by the author himself–or (more likely in this case) allowed by the author to be placed in there by his co-author.

It offends my sense of modesty and decorum.

It also seems to me to be massively imprudent. Writing a best-selling book that trounces what your colleagues in the field are doing is offense enough. To add to that offense such ego-displaying passages is bound to attract the attention and annoyance of one’s colleagues and generate a reputation for one as being a prima donna.

In fact, the authors cite in the book the example of one economist who went online and, pretending to be one of his own students, wrote glowingly about how great he was as a professor. When the ruse was found out, the professor became the object of professional and non-professional scorn.

Something similar is likely to happen in this case. Levitt may not be putting words in the mouth of an imaginary student about how great he is, but he’s immodestly allowing his co-author to reprint them inside a book that carries his name, and that’s just vanity in the extreme. Colleagues will not approve.

It’s also just the kind of thing that would lead colleagues to go over the reasoning in the book with a fine-toothed comb and find fault with it.

A lot of the stuff in Freakonomics is highly new and experimental and at least some of it is (here’s the important part) Not Likely To Hold Up After Further Study. Going back to the data, getting better data, and doing finer-grained analyses are likely to overturn at least some of the ideas advanced in the book, and when that happens, Levitt will look like a young whipper-snapper who self-importantly thought that he could tell everyone in the profession what to do and who crypto-(i.e., through his co-author) boasted in his own book about what a genius he was.

If I had no other impression to go on besides what comes through in such passages of the book (as, indeed, I do not), I’d have to conclude that Steven Levitt is an arrogant young would-be know-it-all and a Big Jerk who’s going to get his comeuppance one of these days.

In real life, Levitt may not be like that at all, but he’s likely to have a significant price to pay from the impression created among his colleagues once the backlash starts. Such passages are even annoying to non-economist readers who, after all, picked up the book to read about interesting economic ideas, not what an economic "superstar" Levitt wants to be portrayed as.

Now, I wouldn’t want the existence of such passages to put you off reading Freakonomics. They’re a relatively minor thing in the book. Most of it is devoted to the "freakonomic" ideas and not to portraying Levitt as a superstar. It’s easy enough to skip a paragraph or flip a page when the latter happens.

The economic ideas in the book are interesting–interesting enough that I’d devote a theme week to them–and involve very well-told tales.

So I’d encourage you to

GET THE BOOK.

Postscript: There’s a bit of offensive language in the
book when Klansmen and drug dealers are being quoted, so fair warning.

One other postscript: You may have noticed that I got all the way through the above review without even mentioning the most controversial claim of the book–that abortion is a major factor reducing the crime rate in recent years.

We’ll talk about that tomorrow.

We Can't Take The Risk Of Being Risk-Free

There’s a nice commentary piece over yonder at RealClearPolitics about the costs associated with trying to eliminate risk from life.

The author notes that Tony Blair recently grasped the nettle and brought it onboard by declaring:

"We cannot guarantee a risk-free life."

True enough! Life involves risk, and the attempt to utterly eliminate it causes more problems than it solves.

"Like what?" you ask.

The author of the piece turns his eyes homeward for examples, noting:

We in the United States are well aware of the dangers of being over-regulated. Businesses labor under unnecessary federal regulations, and litigious attorneys compel them to slap silly warnings on virtually every product.

That’s the summary, but the examples he provides are just the tip of the iceberg. America is suffering huge burdens as a result of the attempt to live (or impose on society) a risk-free life.

Blair, though, has the chutzpah to say something that few American politicians would be willing to voice:

"We also need a far more rational, balanced and intelligent debate as to how ‘risk’ is debated. Not every ‘scandal’ requires a regulatory response," he says, sensibly. Unfortunately, that approach hasn’t yet reached across the pond.

GET THE STORY.

We Can’t Take The Risk Of Being Risk-Free

There’s a nice commentary piece over yonder at RealClearPolitics about the costs associated with trying to eliminate risk from life.

The author notes that Tony Blair recently grasped the nettle and brought it onboard by declaring:

"We cannot guarantee a risk-free life."

True enough! Life involves risk, and the attempt to utterly eliminate it causes more problems than it solves.

"Like what?" you ask.

The author of the piece turns his eyes homeward for examples, noting:

We in the United States are well aware of the dangers of being over-regulated. Businesses labor under unnecessary federal regulations, and litigious attorneys compel them to slap silly warnings on virtually every product.

That’s the summary, but the examples he provides are just the tip of the iceberg. America is suffering huge burdens as a result of the attempt to live (or impose on society) a risk-free life.

Blair, though, has the chutzpah to say something that few American politicians would be willing to voice:

"We also need a far more rational, balanced and intelligent debate as to how ‘risk’ is debated. Not every ‘scandal’ requires a regulatory response," he says, sensibly. Unfortunately, that approach hasn’t yet reached across the pond.

GET THE STORY.

Menial Work & Dead-End Jobs

The problem with the current administration’s economic policies is that it dooms people to taking dead-end jobs consisting of menial work.

This is simply unjust. Menial work is beneath human dignity, and everyone should be able to get a promotion to a higher position without changing employers.

What we ought to do is adopt policies that would eliminate menial work in our lifetime and ensure a promising promotional path for every job in the economy. Right?

THOMAS SOWELL HAS THE SMACKDOWN.

Menial Work & Dead-End Jobs

The problem with the current administration’s economic policies is that it dooms people to taking dead-end jobs consisting of menial work.

This is simply unjust. Menial work is beneath human dignity, and everyone should be able to get a promotion to a higher position without changing employers.

What we ought to do is adopt policies that would eliminate menial work in our lifetime and ensure a promising promotional path for every job in the economy. Right?

THOMAS SOWELL HAS THE SMACKDOWN.

Money See, Money Do?

CapuchinmonkeyThe little feller you see to the left is a capuchin monkey. (So-named because of a visual similarity to Capuchin attire.)

They’re interesting critters:


The capuchin is a New World monkey, brown and cute, the size of a scrawny year-old human baby plus a long tail. ”The capuchin has a small brain, and it’s pretty much focused on food and sex,” says Keith Chen, a Yale economist. . . . ”You should really think of a capuchin as a bottomless stomach of want,” Chen says. ”You can feed them marshmallows all day, they’ll throw up and then come back for more.”

Now, you may be wondering: Why is a Yale economist telling us about capuchin monkeys?

‘Cause he’s studying their capacity for economics.

GET THE STORY.

He’s taught them to use money to buy grapes, apples, Jello-O cubes, cucumber slices, and . . . other things.

The currency Chen settled on was a silver disc, one inch in
diameter, with a hole in the middle — ”kind of like Chinese money,”
he says. It took several months of rudimentary repetition to teach the
monkeys that these tokens were valuable as a means of exchange for a
treat and would be similarly valuable the next day. Having gained that
understanding, a capuchin would then be presented with 12 tokens on a
tray and have to decide how many to surrender for, say, Jell-O cubes
versus grapes. This first step allowed each capuchin to reveal its
preferences and to grasp the concept of budgeting.

Then Chen introduced price shocks and wealth shocks. If, for
instance, the price of Jell-O fell (two cubes instead of one per
token), would the capuchin buy more Jell-O and fewer grapes? The
capuchins responded rationally to tests like this — that is, they
responded the way most readers of The Times would respond. In
economist-speak, the capuchins adhered to the rules of utility
maximization and price theory: when the price of something falls,
people tend to buy more of it.

Monkeys may not be able to come up with the idea of money, but this kind appears to be able to grasp the rudiments of the concept when they were taught it. They even behave surprisingly like humans in their use of money:

When taught to use money, a group of capuchin monkeys responded quite
rationally to simple incentives; responded irrationally to risky
gambles; failed to save; stole when they could; used money for food. . . . In other words, they behaved a good bit like the
creature that most of Chen’s more traditional colleagues study: Homo
sapiens.

The monkeys got quite creative with their manipulation of money. Before Chen took steps to prevent it they even developed the concept of . . . well, let’s just say that they invented a very old profession–the proceeds of which were then used to buy a grape.

The California Housing Crisis

Housing is INSANELY expensive in California.

Why?

Everyone wants to move there ’cause of economic opportunity/better climate/chance to rub shoulders with movie stars/blue staters love good shushi?

Mayby those are pieces of the puzzle (at least the first two), but Thomas Sowell has another one.

GET THE STORY.

(Hint: Higher concentration of environmental whackos.)

Big Gifts Vs. Little Bureaucracies

Mark Steyn writes (EXCERPTS):

Remember the tsunami? Big story, 300,000 dead; America and other rich countries too "stingy" in their response; government ministers from every capital on earth announcing on CNN every 10 minutes more and more millions and gazillions. It was in all the papers for a week or two, but not a lot of water under the bridge since then, and as a result this interesting statistic may not have caught your eye:

Five hundred containers, representing one-quarter of all aid sent to Sri Lanka since the tsunami hit on Dec. 26, are still sitting on the dock in Colombo, unclaimed or unprocessed.

At the Indonesian port of Medan, 1,500 containers of aid are still sitting on the dock.

Four months ago, did you chip in to the tsunami relief effort? Did your company? A Scottish subsidiary of the Body Shop donated a 40-foot container of "Lemon Squidgit" and other premium soap, which arrived at Medan in January and has languished there ever since because of "incomplete paperwork,” according to Indonesian customs officials.

Well, those soapy Scots were winging it — like so many of us, eager to help but too naive to understand that, no matter the scale of devastation visited upon a hapless developing nation, its obstructionist bureaucracy will emerge from the rubble unscathed.

Diageo sent eight 20-foot containers of drinking water via the Red Cross. "We sent it directly to the Red Cross in order to get around the red tape," explained its Sydney office. It arrived in Medan in January and it’s still there. The Indonesian Red Cross lost the paperwork.

UNICEF, the U.N. children’s agency, sent 14 ambulances to Indonesia, and they took two months to clear customs.

This is not a problem unique to the tsunami situation. It seems to plague every major international relief effort.

Remember Live Aid?–the big concernt in the mid-1980s to raise food relief for the Ethiopian famine? Biggest fundraising event in world history? That massively-overplayed "We Are The World" benefit record?

The effort raised tons of money (figuratively) and thus tons of food (literally)–a lot of which went to waste because it couldn’t be gotten to the starving people between the poor infrastructure in that part of the world and the obstructionist govenment that was in place.

The fact is that, for all the head shaking and finger wagging directed toward first world nations (and particularly the U.S.) that imply we "aren’t doing enough" or are even "at fault" for third world poverty, a significant share of the blame must rest on the third world heads of government who have created obstructionist barries that–by accident, lethargy, misapropriation, or even a desire to punish certain segments of their own populations–prevent the aid from getting where it’s needed.

The U.N., as a chief mouthpiece for this head shaking and finger wagging (as we saw by the obstreporous, inaccurate, and ingrateful remarks of that U.N. official in the wake of the tsunami disaster) is complicit in this hypocritical shame game directed against the first world (and the U.S.) that covers up key sources of the problems in the third world, as well as its (the U.N.’s) own problems.

Back to Steyn:

Whatever one feels about it, the United States manages to function. The U.N. apparatus doesn’t. Indeed, the United States does the U.N.’s job better than the U.N. does. The part of the tsunami aid operation that worked was the first few days, when America, Australia and a handful of other nations improvised instant and effective emergency relief operations that did things like, you know, save lives, rescue people, restore water supply, etc. Then the poseurs of the transnational bureaucracy took over, held press conferences demanding that stingy Westerners needed to give more and more and more, and the usual incompetence and corruption followed.

GET THE STORY.

What About My Needs!

Suppose that you are an accountant at a defense contractor working on a really hush-hush but very exciting new project to protect Earth from pesky flying saucers.

Then you go out and get married. You’re a good Catholic, and you and your wife want to have kids right away, and you do! Soon you have a bouncing baby bundle of baptized joy.

Now, accountants make a good bit of money, but with the new family, it’s time for a raise.

You go to your boss and point out that Catholic social teaching holds that in determining a just wage, both the contributions and the needs of an individual must be taken into account.

Being a good Catholic himself, he happily agrees. After all, he point out, you’re a good accountant, you have on-the-job knowledge of how this company works, and it would be harder to go out and get and then break-in a new accountant than to accomodate your request for a raise.

You’re now making (a bit) more than the other accountants in the department, who are all single (for some reason).

Then you’re abducted by aliens.

They brain-poison you so that your sense of personal prudence is severely damaged.

You’re still an ace #1 crackerjack accountant–one of several in your department–but when it comes to your personal finances, you’re now a total nitwit.

So you go to VegaVegas and rack up hundreds of thousands of dollars in gambling debts.

You purchase a lavish mansion and a Rolls-Royce.

You adopt twenty-five special needs babies who require extensive medical care.

You purchase every product from every Internet advertisement that you run across.

Soon you need a warehouse for all the political T-shirts you have.

But then one last little prudence neuron that the aliens missed is able to send you the message that your current needs outstrip your current salary and it’s time for a raise.

You go in and explain that since your last raise, your needs have grown dramatically. The size of your new family and its medical needs alone–besides all the gambling debts, Internet purchases, and the mansion–severely outstrip your salary.

Since Catholic social teaching says that your needs as well as your contributions need to be taken into account in determining a just wage for you, you are confident that your boss will give you one.

But he doesn’t.

Though he is a good Catholic himself, your boss (whose prudence-center is still intact except when it come to building fighterplanes out of toothpicks and glue) argues that your needs now so vastly outstrip your contributions that the business cannot possibly comply with your request.

You disagree and shove the Catechism of the Catholic Church under his nose.

He suggests that what the Catechism says is meant to express a goal that ethical business should set for themselves–paying everyone a wage able to sustain them and their families in at least a modest and dignified lifestyle–but that it does not mean that an employer is called upon to pay employees what is required to cover the kinds of massive needs that you have that so vastly outstrip their contributions.

He further points out that it would be irresponsible and contrary to the virtue of prudence for the company to try to pay you the wages that you now need. With those wages it could hire not only an accountant just as good as you who doesn’t have such massive needs, it could also hire more line workers and allow them to make a decent living while they crank out even more of the toothpick fighterplanes that the nation so desperately needs in its conflict with the flying saucers.

To the extent that you have massive needs that vastly outstrip your contributions, these should be dealt with by a common entity–such as the state–in keeping with the common destination of goods. They should not fall on a single, individual employer.

He suggests that you either

A) Develop a new technology that will make you as rich as Bill Gates, or

B) file for bankruptcy protection under the provisions of civil law, return the special needs children that you have adopted to the custody of the state, sign papers turning control of your finances over to you un-brain-poisoned wife, and seek the help of neurosurgeons and psychiatrists.

What does this teach us?

That you should go buy How I Did It by Bill Gates?

That there’s a misprint in the Catechism of the Catholic Church?

That your boss is a cruel man who is in disobedience to Catholic social teaching?

No, but it does teach us that the needs-and-contributions formula is not meant to suggest that employers are to disregard the costs associated with accomodating a particular employee’s financial needs. While the needs an employee has play a proper role in his remuneration, the employer is not required to foolishly use his money to cover the needs of individuals who have made life choices that result in financial needs that dramatically outstrip the contributions that the employee makes.

The contributions that the employee makes–the value of the work he performs and not his personal needs–are the primary determinant of a just wage. His personal financial needs, while they should be taken into account, play a subordinate role.

In the real world, a person’s financial needs may be vastly greater than the value of the work he does–or vastly lower than the value of the work. Employers are not required to pay massive-need workers wages that are vastly inflated compared to the value of their work. Neither should they required to pay minimum-needs workers wages that are vastly less than the value of their work.

For employers to behave otherwise–to allow need rather than value to be the primary determinant–would completely disrupt the market mechanism for determining economic value, and thus would completely disrupt the economy, to the harm of all.

What About My Needs!

Suppose that you are an accountant at a defense contractor working on a really hush-hush but very exciting new project to protect Earth from pesky flying saucers.

Then you go out and get married. You’re a good Catholic, and you and your wife want to have kids right away, and you do! Soon you have a bouncing baby bundle of baptized joy.

Now, accountants make a good bit of money, but with the new family, it’s time for a raise.

You go to your boss and point out that Catholic social teaching holds that in determining a just wage, both the contributions and the needs of an individual must be taken into account.

Being a good Catholic himself, he happily agrees. After all, he point out, you’re a good accountant, you have on-the-job knowledge of how this company works, and it would be harder to go out and get and then break-in a new accountant than to accomodate your request for a raise.

You’re now making (a bit) more than the other accountants in the department, who are all single (for some reason).

Then you’re abducted by aliens.

They brain-poison you so that your sense of personal prudence is severely damaged.

You’re still an ace #1 crackerjack accountant–one of several in your department–but when it comes to your personal finances, you’re now a total nitwit.

So you go to VegaVegas and rack up hundreds of thousands of dollars in gambling debts.

You purchase a lavish mansion and a Rolls-Royce.

You adopt twenty-five special needs babies who require extensive medical care.

You purchase every product from every Internet advertisement that you run across.

Soon you need a warehouse for all the political T-shirts you have.

But then one last little prudence neuron that the aliens missed is able to send you the message that your current needs outstrip your current salary and it’s time for a raise.

You go in and explain that since your last raise, your needs have grown dramatically. The size of your new family and its medical needs alone–besides all the gambling debts, Internet purchases, and the mansion–severely outstrip your salary.

Since Catholic social teaching says that your needs as well as your contributions need to be taken into account in determining a just wage for you, you are confident that your boss will give you one.

But he doesn’t.

Though he is a good Catholic himself, your boss (whose prudence-center is still intact except when it come to building fighterplanes out of toothpicks and glue) argues that your needs now so vastly outstrip your contributions that the business cannot possibly comply with your request.

You disagree and shove the Catechism of the Catholic Church under his nose.

He suggests that what the Catechism says is meant to express a goal that ethical business should set for themselves–paying everyone a wage able to sustain them and their families in at least a modest and dignified lifestyle–but that it does not mean that an employer is called upon to pay employees what is required to cover the kinds of massive needs that you have that so vastly outstrip their contributions.

He further points out that it would be irresponsible and contrary to the virtue of prudence for the company to try to pay you the wages that you now need. With those wages it could hire not only an accountant just as good as you who doesn’t have such massive needs, it could also hire more line workers and allow them to make a decent living while they crank out even more of the toothpick fighterplanes that the nation so desperately needs in its conflict with the flying saucers.

To the extent that you have massive needs that vastly outstrip your contributions, these should be dealt with by a common entity–such as the state–in keeping with the common destination of goods. They should not fall on a single, individual employer.

He suggests that you either

A) Develop a new technology that will make you as rich as Bill Gates, or

B) file for bankruptcy protection under the provisions of civil law, return the special needs children that you have adopted to the custody of the state, sign papers turning control of your finances over to you un-brain-poisoned wife, and seek the help of neurosurgeons and psychiatrists.

What does this teach us?

That you should go buy How I Did It by Bill Gates?

That there’s a misprint in the Catechism of the Catholic Church?

That your boss is a cruel man who is in disobedience to Catholic social teaching?

No, but it does teach us that the needs-and-contributions formula is not meant to suggest that employers are to disregard the costs associated with accomodating a particular employee’s financial needs. While the needs an employee has play a proper role in his remuneration, the employer is not required to foolishly use his money to cover the needs of individuals who have made life choices that result in financial needs that dramatically outstrip the contributions that the employee makes.

The contributions that the employee makes–the value of the work he performs and not his personal needs–are the primary determinant of a just wage. His personal financial needs, while they should be taken into account, play a subordinate role.

In the real world, a person’s financial needs may be vastly greater than the value of the work he does–or vastly lower than the value of the work. Employers are not required to pay massive-need workers wages that are vastly inflated compared to the value of their work. Neither should they required to pay minimum-needs workers wages that are vastly less than the value of their work.

For employers to behave otherwise–to allow need rather than value to be the primary determinant–would completely disrupt the market mechanism for determining economic value, and thus would completely disrupt the economy, to the harm of all.