I sit up and take notice when I run across a piece on foreign policy by Robert Kagan. I read his short book
in the run-up to the Iraq War and found it very insightful regarding the current America/Europe divide and why it exists, not just in terms of Iraq but more generally (even ecclesiastically).
Yesterday I ran across a piece on the problem of "managing" the rise of China as a major power in the present century.
EXCERPTS:
There has been much disc ussion recently about how to "manage
the rise of China." The phrase itself is soothing, implying gradualism,
predictability and time. Time enough to think and prepare, to take
measurements of China’s trajectory and adjust as necessary. If China
eventually emerges as a clear threat, there will be time to react. But
meanwhile there is time enough not to overreact, to be watchful but
patient and not to create self-fulfilling prophecies. If we prematurely
treat China as an enemy, it is said, it will become an enemy.
The
idea that we can manage China’s rise is comforting because it gives us
a sense of control and mastery, and of paternalistic superiority. With
proper piloting and steady nerves on our part, the massive Chinese ship
can be brought safely into harbor and put at anchor.
The history of rising powers, however, and their attempted "management"
by established powers provides little reason for confidence or comfort.
Rarely have rising powers risen without sparking a major war that
reshaped the international system to reflect new realities of power.
[I]sn’t it possible that China does not want to be integrated into a
political and security system that it had no part in shaping and that
conforms neither to its ambitions nor to its own autocratic and
hierarchical principles of rule? Might not China, like all rising
powers of the past, including the United States, want to reshape the
international system to suit its own purposes, commensurate with its
new power, and to make the world safe for its autocracy?
CHINA: MAKING THE WORLD SAFE FOR AUTOCRACY.
Of course that assumes that a war isn’t already going on. It’s clear that China has had a difficult time controlling its people over the last fifteen or so years. Things have gotten much tougher than they used to be. Autocracy depends on a certain level of ignorance and the Internet isn’t helping to improve stability. China has been forced in many ways to make itself over. Taiwan and other “special trade zones” are great examples of this.
It’s also interesting to me that the US has done next to nothing when it comes to North Korea. I view this as an overt challenge to China along the lines of, “you mean a young emergent super-power like yourself can’t keep one of your puppets in line?” There has been a lot of finger wagging at the US, but I can’t but help that the Chinese are more embarrassed than anyone else. While its very cynical, I’d hate to be a Chinese foreign minister post nuclear exchange Korea. Millions of people dead. Japan arming itself for the first time in fifty-odd years. The US gearing for war. And, worst of all, a lot of fingers pointed your way.
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